Demographer's Report

The district's demographer will be updating Trustees tonight on the latest enrollment projections for the 2010-2011 school year. As the Carroll community ages, growth has actually tapered off and less students are expected to be enrolled in August than the previous year. The news doesn't come as much of a surprise to school officials who have known for some time that the struggling economy and fewer home starts in Southlake would eventually have a significant impact on the district's student population.
Already this year, CISD is experiencing a 100-student shortfall in the number of K-12 students projected to be enrolled for the current school year. Officials say that not only affects staffing levels, but also state funding. CISD receives about $6,000 per student in state revenues. Having 100 less students than expected means a budget shortfall of more than $600,000. That deficit must be added to the $3.4 million Trustees are already expecting to take from the Fund Balance to cover this year's operating expenses.
Demographer Rocky Gardiner form Templeton Demographics, LLC will be at tonight's Carroll School Board meeting to not only share the pending forecast, but also a 10-year projection. Gardiner will explain to Trustees that Durham Intermediate and Carroll Senior High School may be the only campuses with enrollment gains during the 2010-2011 school year. Most campuses are expected to decline as larger classes exit and move through the system.
A total of 7,831 students were enrolled in 2007-2008. That grew by only eight students in 2008-2009, with a 112-student drop so far during the current year. Templeton officials are predicting another 90-student drop before October, bringing the 2010-2011 projection to 7,637 students. The largest drops are expected at Carroll High School (-62), Carroll Elementary (-28), Johnson Elementary (-23) and Dawson Middle School (-23) as those campuses have larger existing classes than those new classes entering.
The pending enrollment projections are no cause for panic according to school officials. The news of the slower growth rate was expected to some extent. Still, officials say they will watch trends carefully before making final decisions on all the 2009 bond projects. Most of the projects, according to school staff, provide amenities and space for the existing student population, not future students. In fact, both new campuses are replacement schools, designed to modernize buildings and technology, while freeing up overcrowding at Durham Elementary and Johnson Elementary schools.
New construction at Carroll Senior High will go on as planned, including construction of art facilities, an auxiliary gym, student parking and locker/dressing room space.
Planned security entrances at each of the CISD campuses will also move forward, as will a 1,600-seat expansion at Dragon Stadium that provides a technology disaster recovery site for the district.
School officials say the projects that have not yet started - classroom expansions at Old Union Elementary, Eubanks Intermediate, Dawson Middle School and Carroll High School, will be reviewed carefully in light of the new enrollment data. It may be too soon to tell, however, just how much of that additional space will be necessary.
Very soon, CISD will publish a 2009 Bond Project Update, giving local taxpayers and parents a look at work to date, as well as the enrollment projections and how they affect ongoing construction.
Stay tuned to the CISD website for more complete information on the 2010 Demographer's Report. A complete Board Meeting Summary will be available for Dragon families after tonight's School Board meeting.